India and China…and Pakistan

Chinese rejection of Indian visas and disputes on the Kashmir border have been cited as indicators of deteriorating relations between the two rising great powers of Asia. However, realist political theorists contend that border disputes and visa troubles are not the causes of strained relations. Rather, they are the symptoms of disorder and competition in a relationship. When the regional order is stable and states perceive the preservation of the status quo as in their interests, the states will keep it that way. Their relationship will be remarkably devoid of significant issues. Leadership in each country will act rationally and calculate actions and reactions that compliment their security goals. Thus, in a stable order, border disputes are put on the back burner, visa issues are irrelevant, currency devaluation is rarely discussed, and even military deployments and commitments are ignored.

A perfect example of this is the U.S.-China relationship. In order to preserve the stable order that is beneficial to both parties, yuan currency and the trade imbalance are discussed but they do not escalate to anything significantly. Taiwan is not discussed until either side perceives that its credibility, and thus the stability of their bilateral order, is threatened. All of a sudden, border disputes, American arms sales to Taiwan, carrier groups, and missile deployments all become points of argument.

The author of “Letter from New Delhi – Clash of the Tigers” in Foreign Affairs cites the Indian Ocean, resources in Africa and Burma, U.S. influence, and yuan devaluation all as points of disagreement and friction in the Sino-Indian relationship. He claims that these, in combination with border disputes, ensure a rivalry between the two countries. These points, upon further analysis, do not ensure rivalry and are also more likely to be symptoms of rivalry rather than

For one, China has no real means of challenging India in the Indian Ocean. Its small, brown water navy poses no threat to either the Indian fleet or the power projection capabilities of the U.S. in the Pacific. If China can’t get its fleet to the Indian Ocean how can it compete there?

As for Africa, resource competition there won’t erupt into conflict especially because both countries rely more heavily on other areas of the world for their resources. For example, China invests only 3 percent of its FDI in Africa and gets most of its oil from the Middle East, not Africa. And while China will continue to become more reliant on trade and oil from Africa it still remains to be seen if Africa will replace the Middle East as China’s indispensible oil lifeline.

Competition for U.S. influence is an interesting case, as both countries have extremely well-developed relations the United States. The U.S. has been pursuing better relations with India, even allowing them to ignore international nuclear agreements. But it remains to be seen if the U.S.-Indian relationship can replace the U.S.-China relationship, America’s most important relationship to date. From an economic, political, and military significance standpoint it is evident that China will remain in the center of U.S. foreign policy in Asia for years to come, regardless of the disagreements over yuan value.

So, what then can be the reason for the friction? Realism says that we should look to the fundamental issues of international security. In this case, the only true source of friction in South Asia is the relationship between Pakistan and India. China has long balanced Pakistan against India to ensure that India diverts resources away from its Northern border with China and to its border with Pakistan.

The news in Asia has been dominated by the American war in Afghanistan and the general weakness of Pakistan. Pakistan cannot defend its own border and has been fighting domestic turmoil that threatens to overthrow the government. This greatly damages Pakistan’s standing in international politics because they are both indicators of weakness. In response to this weakness, it is possible that India could step up pressure against Pakistan to improve its position in South Asia, unless it is deterred from doing so.

This is exactly what China, Pakistan’s ally, is doing. In order to retain the stability of the South Asian order that it finds beneficial and safeguard its security, China will step up pressure on India on the border and in other areas, like visas, to deter Indian interference with Pakistan. Furthermore, if Pakistan continues to weaken, China will increase the pressure of its balancing against India.

Something to watch for: What is most threatening is that if Pakistan continues to weaken and collapses, a power vacuum in South Asia will form and leave India the undisputed great power of the region. In turn, this could lead to significant insecurity in the Sino-Indian relationship that could lead to crises.

In Response To: http://www.foreignaffairs.com/features/letters-from/letter-from-new-delhi?page=2

Comments

Leave a comment

Name (required)

E-mail (required)

URI

Your Message

Security Code: