The Importance of American Arms Deals with Taiwan

Many have rightly heralded the rise of Ma Ying-jeou in Taiwan as the beginning of a new era in cross-strait relations. Taiwan is slowly moving towards the Chinese sphere of influence as China continues to grow and become a more powerful influencer to Taiwanese policy than American security commitments. Some might ask why, if this is the case, the United States continues its arms sales to Taiwan. The island itself could not fend off a Chinese invasion and it is possible that China could invade and completely occupy the island before the United States could mount a counter attack.

The reason why these arms sales are so important to the United States and Taiwan is that they are the last bargaining chip the U.S. has to pressure and shape Chinese policy in relation to Taiwan. Clearly, as the Chinese air force grows and its surface to air missiles become more advanced, Taiwan’s military will eventually be outmatched. However, it is still a thorn in China’s side to see American-made military equipment on the island. First, American military technology is still much more advanced than China’s, which would cause serious problems for a Chinese invasion. Second, and most importantly, it is a tangible demonstration of America’s commitment to its allies and a prime indicator of American credibility in East Asia and the Pacific. As long as America agrees to thumb its nose at China and sell weapons to Taiwan, the U.S. demonstrates its commitment to Taiwan and its alliances, firmly attributing them paramount significance, especially with regard to Sino-American relations.

To cancel or revoke arms sales to Taiwan would be bad on two levels: the first is that it would signal to China and our allies in the Pacific that our resolve in Asia is diminishing. This would be perceived by allies in the region as a serious threat to security and would cause either a serious shockwave in our regional alliances or, at worst, a shift of some of our allies to the Chinese sphere of influence. Secondly, it would be pointless. The United States is still much more powerful than China, though China continues to grow at impressive rates. To give into a weaker power simply to avoid diplomatic headaches would be a huge mistake. China, for all the hot air it is blowing, will not go to war over arms sales to Taiwan. To perceive Chinese protests over these arms sales as a serious indicator of changing trends in the security arrangement in East Asia is a serious misperception.

As the final bargaining chip that Taiwan has in its relations with China, arms sales must continue until Taiwan itself decides that it no longer wants them. This is the only way to ensure fair treatment and a peaceful resolution to the decades-old dispute in the strait.

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