North, South and the Cheonan

On March 26, the South Korean corvette, the Cheonan, was sunk. After much speculation, it is now believed that North Korea launched a torpedo at the corvette and sunk it, killing the 46 sailors aboard. The South has not officially blamed the North and the North has denied any involvement. For the official North Korean response click here. Of course, both sides are now trading harsh rhetoric but, as is expected, neither side is taking any real action. (After all, in great power politics, the small powers take sides and follow the leader).

This is not the first time that North Korea has attacked the South since the truce that effectively ended the Korean War and set up the DMZ that divides the country to this day. For a complete list of incursions, assassinations, and assassination attempts click here. With a history of North Korea walking the very fine line between war and peace, and without a firm response from South Korea, it seems as though something is out of place here. If South Korea could definitively prove that North Korea was responsible for the attack, what then? To whom would South Korea turn? Surely, the United States is not interested in a land war in Asia. China is in a tough position, courting both sides, but it too wouldn’t want to see a war on its border or the unification of the Korean Peninsula under the South Korean regime (a U.S. ally). And, if South Korea does not make the North pay for this action, what happens to its credibility? Can it afford to let such an egregious act against its citizens go unpunished?

As a small power, South Korea does not have a military option, or any real option altogether, other than to follow the United States’ lead on this one. At least behind the scenes, the United States will work to ensure that no conflict will break out over this incident. But China must take the lead in this matter: As the only land power in East Asia, its word is most important when it comes to the state of affairs on its borders. China is becoming very cautious about the erratic regime in the North, as its relationship with that government (coupled with its behavior) could strain its relationship with the U.S. (its most important relationship for the foreseeable future) and possibly lead serious deterioration and/or conflict. Hopefully it is able to rein in Kim Jong Il (if that is even possible) before things really heat up.

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